WHY TODAY'S SMART INVESTORS ARE THROWING IN THE TOWEL ON BUYING AND HOLDING STOCKS AND USING A NEW APPROACH THAT HAS DOUBLED THE RETURN OF THE S&P 500 WITH LESS RISK...

If you are looking to compound your hard-earned money by investing in the stock market, then you're in for a rude awakening, my friend.....at least if you are investing the way that most people do.....just buying and holding stocks, such as the S&P 500.

We only need to go back and look at what happened to the stock market over 3 different time frames since 2007 to see how dangerous the "Buy and Hope" strategy turns out to be in reality.

After all, we do buy stocks in the real world, not in a vacuum.

And if your plan is just to wait it out as the market crumbles before your eyes, then you are in for a lot of financial pain and heartburn!

If that is your plan, then may I suggest investing in Tums and Pepcid, because you're going to need them in order to help with the stomach churning acid that awaits...If you are "hoping" that future market corrections won't happen, then you must do a reality check.

Since 1980, there have been 37 market corrections!

During these corrections, the S&P 500 dropped an average of 15.6%.

When the market drops 20% or more then that is referred to as "Bear Market."

Of the 37 stock market corrections since 1980, 10 went on to become Bear Markets.

There will continue to be stock market corrections / Bear Markets going forward, just accept that as a fact!

So, let's take a closer look at the last 3 significant Bear Markets/corrections:

1) 2007-2009 Bear Market, affectionately known as "The Great Recession"

2) The last 3 months of 2018

3) The recent COVID-19 Pandemic Crash

 

Let's start by looking at The Great Recession of 2007 to 2009.

This was felt to be the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression in 1929!

If you remember, it started with the collapse of subprime mortgages and resulted in the popping of the real estate bubble.

That time also saw the collapse of the Lehman Brothers Investment Bank that had been in business since 1847!

I remember the common sentiment at the time, "How can Lehman Brothers go under......it's Lehman Brothers, after all?!"

From 2007-2009, the S&P 500 had a maximum drawdown of -47.6%!

If you were invested in SPY (the ETF that tracks the S&P 500), then you watched in horror as almost half of your money vanished from the peak of the market in late 2007 until the bottom in March 2009!

That is a very bitter pill to swallow!

By way of comparison, Our System, which we will discuss in more detail shortly, had a maximum drawdown of only 19.8% for that same time period!

Now, while it is never fun to watch an account decrease in value, it is much easier to tolerate a 19.8% drop during the worst financial crisis since The Great Depression versus a 47.6% drop!

Let's take a closer look at Our System's performance compared to Buy and Hold during this same timeframe:

In 2007,       S&P 500: +5.1%          Our System: +34.9%

In 2008,       S&P 500: -36.8%         Our System: +12.6%

In 2009,       S&P 500: +26.4%        Our System: +69.2%

I think those numbers speak for themselves......

 

Let's now look at the market selloff from October 2018 through December 2018.

During those 3 months, the S&P 500 had a maximum drawdown of -19.3%.

This just missed being a Bear Market by 0.7%!

Our System had a maximum drawdown of -10.2% during that same timeframe...

We had half of the drawdown compared to the Buy and Hold strategy!

 

Now, let's look at the recent COVID-19 Pandemic Bear Market, which was the most rapid Bear Market in history!

This one should be fresh in everyone's mind...

On 2/19/2020, the SPY traded at a record high price of $339.08 per share and on 3/12/2020, the SPY closed down more than 20% below the February high!

We went from all time highs into a Bear Market in ONLY 16 TRADING DAYS!!

There has NEVER been a more rapid descent into Bear Market territory, even taking into consideration the 2007-2009 Great Recession, the 2000-2002 Dot.com Crash, the 1987 crash, and even the 1929 Great Depression!

The COVID-19 Pandemic Bear Market low in the S&P 500 was $218.26 on 3/23/2020, which was -35.6% below the all time highs just 23 trading days earlier on 2/19/2020!

Let's compare "Buy and Hold" to Our System during the COVID-19 Crash:

 

February 2020:     S&P 500: -7.92%           Our System: -1.73%

                             Volatility: 24.9%                   Volatility: 10.5%

 

March 2020:         S&P 500: -12.46%         Our System: +5.05%

                              Volatility: 89.6%                  Volatility: 39.6%

 

The maximum drawdown from February 2020 to March 2020 in the S&P 500 was -35.6% compared to -10.6% in Our System!

Looking at Volatility is an important measure as it reflects how much asset price movement occurred during the timeframe of interest.

The higher the Volatility, then the more violent the price swings.

The higher the Volatility, then the more Tums and Pepcid that you have to chew!

In order to sleep peacefully at night, we want our Volatility to be low.

Our System had less than half of the Volatility compared to "Buy and Hope" during the COVID-19 Pandemic Bear Market!

By the way, I like to call the "Buy and Hold" strategy the "Buy and Hope" strategy!

After all, hoping that the market doesn't have a rip your face off type of downturn is NOT a viable investment strategy, yet countless people do this everyday!

We are talking about YOUR hard-earned money here and you deserve a strategy that is better than just "HOPE!"

Are you tired of watching your account dollars evaporate before your eyes in these situations and having no sense of control?

I HAVE THE SOLUTION......

How would you like to DOUBLE THE RETURN OF THE S&P 500 WITH LESS VOLATILITY THAN "BUY AND HOPE?"

How would you like to do this by just making 2 simple trades each month?

This is THE ANSWER for those who want to have their money working hard for them, but don't have the time or desire to watch the markets.  There is no need to sit glued to the computer screen all day watching every up or down tick of the market.  Our System only requires making 2 simple trades after the last calendar day of trading each month......That's it!

If you are a results oriented person and looking to improve your returns with less risk, then my system is for you!

If you have a Retirement Account that is managed by a Wall Street Professional, then I want you to take a very close look at the returns that you have made and the risk that you took to make those returns.

I would ask that you pull out your account statements and really look at the year end results that you have received and look at the drawdowns that occurred along the way to those year end results.

I would ask that you look at the fees that you paid to your Wall Street Money Manager in the context of what YOU made and the risk that YOU took.

The typical "professional" will charge you 1% on the assets under management.

If you have a $100,000 account, then you are paying $1,000 per year for those returns and for that risk/volatility.

In addition, as your account size grows, so do your fees.

That 1% fee becomes a higher dollar amount as the account size grows over time.

For example, when your account reaches $1,000,000 in assets, then you are paying $10,000 per year for those returns and risk.

Speaking of returns and risk, how has the typical Wall Street Money Manager performed over the years?

There has been a great study done by the folks at tastytrade which showed just how bad that actual Wall Street performance has been.

They looked at 5 uncorrelated ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) and had every possible combination of those 5 assets.

With each ETF they looked at 3 potential positions.

They looked at "being long," which simply meant having purchased the ETF with the hope of profiting from an upward move in the ETF.

They looked at "being short," which meant to sell the ETF with the hope of buying it back for a cheaper price after the asset moved lower in value.

And finally, they looked at being "flat," which simply meant not having any position in the ETF.

Since there were 5 uncorrelated ETFs in the study, then that meant that were 243 possible combinations of long, short and flat in those 5 ETFs.

Also, the fact that the 5 ETFs were "uncorrelated" simply meant that the ETFs tended to move independently of the other ETFs.

This, in essence, creates a "diversified portfolio."

Are you with me so far?

Now for the stunning results......

THE AVERAGE RETURN ACROSS ALL 243 POSSIBLE COMBINATIONS WAS JUST 2%!

Yes, there were outliers that made 20% or lost 20%, but the AVERAGE RETURN WAS JUST 2%!

After you take away Wall Street's 1% fee, then that leaves only a 1% return on your hard-earned money!

What happened to the 10-12% annual returns that Wall Street had promised?

This leaves 3 really important questions to be answered.....

1)  Does your Wall Street Money Manager really deserve their huge 1% fee?  The answer is a resounding......NO!

2)  Is it time to fire your Wall Street Money Manager?.........YES!

3)  Is there a better way to manage your money and for a whole lot less cost?......YES!

Let's open up the hood and take a closer look at Our System's engine....

Our System uses a limited universe of ETFs that can be easily bought and sold in ANY brokerage account from your online brokerage platform.

In addition, with the competition among online brokerages, there has been a move towards $0 commissions for ETF trades.

Our System uses a combination of momentum over different time frames as well as a volatility and "risk off" filter.

The System has performed extremely well over the past 17+ years, through both Bull and Bear Markets, having more than doubled the return of "Buy and Hope" with less volatility!

Now, as you know, past results are no guarantee of future results, but if a system has performed well in both up and down markets, then it is a robust system.

Here are the past performance details:

 

 

 

 courtesy of ETFReplay.com

As you can see above, Our System has returned 20.6% per year compounded compared to only 9.1% per year for "Buy and Hope!"

Our System: Total return of 2,490% going back to 2003.

"Buy and Hope" Total Return of 357% going back to 2003.

During this 17+ year history, Our System had a maximum drawdown of -21.1% compared to a maximum drawdown of -55.2% for "Buy and Hope."

Let's define some of the terms used above.

"CAGR" stands for "Compounded Annual Growth Rate."

This is a way of comparing different investment returns over time.  It smooths out the total returns over time and converts the total return into an equivalent constant annual rate of return.

This makes comparing results across different investments a more "apples to apples" comparison.

CAGR does NOT take Volatility into account and that is why it is important to look at CAGR AND Volatility when you compare different investment returns.

The other metric that CAGR is good for is estimating potential future returns.

Looking back at the 17+ year data, if you started with $100,000 in 2003 and had a 20.6% CAGR from 2003 to now, then you simply multiply the starting value in 2003 x 1.206 for each year as follows:

Starting value in Jan 2003 = $100,000

$100,000 x 1.206 = $120,600 (ending value after 2003)

If you perform this calculation from 2003 until 2020, then $100,000 becomes $2,414,928 by the end of 2019! 

"Sharpe Ratio" is a way of comparing returns across different investments that DOES take Volatility into account.

The higher the Sharpe Ratio, then the better the investment return per unit of risk.

By way of comparison, Berkshire Hathaway, the company managed by Warren Buffet, had a Sharpe Ratio of 0.76 over a 30 year time frame from 1976 to 2011.

As you can see above, Our System had a Sharpe Ratio of 1.05 in the 17+ year history from 2003 until now!

If you would like to beat your Wall Street Money Manager's returns and potentially double the S&P 500 return with less volatility, then look no further!

For a mere fraction of the 1% fee that your "professional" Money Manager is charging, you can have access to Our Proven System for just $10 per month!

You will receive instructions on the 2 ETFs to purchase after the close of the last trading day each month.

This is as simple as buying a stock in your online brokerage account and can be done for $0 commissions thanks to the competition in the online brokerage space.

You will simply hold those 2 ETFs for the next month until the following month's signals are given.  

That's all there is to it!

It is very simple to do even if you don't have a lot of trading experience.

Detailed instructions for how to make the purchases and sales will be included to make this very easy to carry out.

Click below to start getting your monthly signals and FIRE YOUR WALL STREET MONEY MANAGER.

If you would like to receive a discount for purchasing 12 months of signals upfront, then click below to get 12 months of signals for just $97.  This is almost a 20% discount to our $10 per month signals!

Remember, that unlike your Wall Street Money Manager's 1% fee that increases in dollar amount as your account grows, your cost for these signals will remain the same as your account grows.

This is your opportunity to potentially double the return of the S&P 500 with a fraction of the Volatility.

My only caveat is that you must use these signals for your own personal account.

By your use of our system's signals you are declaring that you are not a professional money manager who is managing other people's accounts.  

My goal is to help the everyday hard-working individual achieve market beating returns with less risk than "Buy and Hope!"

SIGN UP BELOW TO GET STARTED

I look forward to working with you and helping you to achieve your financial goals.

To your success....

Dr. Mike

  

 

 

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